Alpha looms large in Withers

Horseracing Betting Lines

02/03/2012 - Ozone Park, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Local stakes winner Alpha has been made the even-money favorite in a field of seven for Saturday's $200,000 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct. After a year's absence the Withers returns as a prep event for three-year-olds on the road to the Kentucky Derby.

Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin for Godolphin Racing, Alpha will start from the outside post with regular rider Ramon Dominguez in the saddle. The colt was the 4-5 favorite when winning last month's Count Fleet Stakes at Aqueduct.

"We're excited to be running him, to be in this position," said McLaughlin. . "Our stomachs were upset last weekend when Consortium didn't run well in the slop at Gulfstream (sixth in the Holy Bull), so we're thankful for Alpha. But we have to do it day by day, race by race."

Alpha, whose sire Bernardini won this race in 2006, has two wins in four career starts with $180,000 in his bankroll. He was second to Union Rags in the Champagne Stakes last October, but only 11th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

"The Withers is an important race because it's graded and you don't get to run in the Derby unless you have those graded stakes earnings," said McLaughlin. . "When you look at the schedule, you start with the first Saturday in May, and work back from there. We are taking the Withers as an important step, and maybe, maybe, afterward we'll talk about what we're going to do."

The 1 1/16-mile Withers is a preliminary race for Aqueduct's $1 million Wood Memorial on April 7.

The 4-1 second selection is King Kid trained by Dale Romans. The colt has drawn post four with Mike Luzzi getting the mount.

"He's a horse we've always thought a lot of, and we'd like him to run big Saturday and see if he belongs," said Romans who saddled 2011 Preakness champ Shackleford. "It would be nice to get $120,000 of graded stakes earnings and then be selective about where he'd go next."

Owned by McKee Stables, King Kid won in his first start in November and was third in last month's Gulfstream Park Derby behind Reveron. Reveron has drawn into Saturday's Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.

Here is the full Withers' field from the rail out: Hakama, Julian Pimentel, 5-1; Speightscity, David Cohen, 20-1; Swag Daddy, Junior Alvarado, 10-1; King Kid, Mike Luzzi, 4-1; How Do I Win, Cornelio Velasquez, 10-1; Tiger Walk, Horacio Karamanos, 6-1 and Alpha, Ramon Dominguez, 1-1.

Post-time for the Withers is slated at 4:05 p.m. (et).

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

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