2010 Big West Conference Tournament Preview

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/09/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 35th annual Big West Conference Tournament will once again take place at the Anaheim Convention Center Arena for a tenth straight season. The bottom four seeds of the eight-team field will take part in first-round action on Wednesday. The top two seeds receive byes all the way to Friday's semifinal round, while the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds get a bye to the quarterfinals on Thursday.

The winner of the tournament receives an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. Last season, top-seeded Cal State Northridge defeated third-seeded Pacific in overtime, 71-66, to advance to the "Big Dance" for the first time in nine years.

UC Santa Barbara (20-10) won the Big West regular-season title with a 12-4 mark in league play this year. As the top seed in this tournament, the Gauchos will play the lowest remaining seed in the semifinals on Friday. UCSB's only BWC title came in 2002, and the Gauchos have a 13-25 record in this event all- time. They wrapped up this season by winning seven of their final eight games. UCSB is led by Orlando Johnson, who tops the league with 18.0 ppg.

The No. 2 seed belongs to the Pacific Tigers (20-10, 12-4), who have captured a Big West-best four tournament titles, most recently in 2006. The Tigers' 27 tournament wins are also tops in the league. They'll face the highest remaining seed in the semis. First-Team All-Big West forward Joe Ford was named the conference's Defensive Player of the Year, while Sam Willard compiles 11.1 points and 8.1 rebounds per contest. The Tigers closed out the regular season with a three-game win streak.

Holding down the No. 3 seed are the Long Beach State 49ers (15-15, 8-8), who are tied with Pacific with four tournament titles, the latest of which came in 2007. LBSU will face the lowest remaining seed in Thursday's quarterfinal round. T.J. Robinson headlines the group, as he averages a double-double with 15.7 points and 10.3 rebounds per tilt. Robinson, a 52.2 percent shooter from the floor, earned First-Team All-Big West honors this season. Long Beach State wrapped up its schedule by winning three of its final four games, with the lone loss coming at Pacific two weeks ago.

The No. 4 seed belongs to the UC Davis Aggies (13-17, 8-8), who have a 1-1 record all-time in the BWC Tournament. The Aggies have not won more than two games in a row since opening their league slate back in early-January. Dominic Calegari leads the team with 16.7 points and 5.3 rebounds per game, while Joe Harden is averaging 14.1 points and 7.1 boards per tilt. UC Davis will take on the highest remaining seed on Thursday.

First-round action will get started on Wednesday, with the fifth-seeded Cal State Fullerton Titans (15-14, 8-8) taking on No. 8 seed Cal State Northridge (11-20, 6-10). These teams split the season series, with the visiting squad winning each meeting. Fullerton won in a 113-112 triple-overtime thriller when they last met on February 13th.

Fullerton closed its schedule with back-to-back home losses to Pacific (70-64) and UC Davis (92-86). This past Saturday, the Titans took UC Davis to overtime when Jacques Streeter drained a game-tying three-pointer with nine seconds remaining in regulation. But in the extra session, the Aggies knocked down back-to-back-to-back threes to swing the momentum. Three-point shooting was the difference in the game, as UC Davis knocked down 12-of-21 treys, while the Titans shot just 6-of-21 from the perimeter. Streeter and Gerard Anderson scored 23 apiece to pace Fullerton, while Devon Peltier added 20 points off the bench. Jer'Vaughn Johnson recorded a double-double with 14 points and 11 boards in the losing effort. Five different Titans average double figures this season, including three who tally at least 11 points and six boards per contest.

The Matadors won this tournament last season, but for a repeat they'll have to win four games in four nights. Twelve of the Matadors' games this season have been decided by five points or less, though they are just 4-8 in those contests. They closed out the year with losses in four of their final five games. This past Saturday, Northridge put up little fight in a 66-47 loss at home to Pacific. Kenny Daniels scored a team-high 17 points in the setback, while Willie Galick finished with 13 points. However, their supporting cast didn't offer much, as the Matadors went 1-of-15 from beyond the arc and shot a combined 32.7 percent from the floor. Daniels leads the team with 15.6 ppg, while Lenny Daniel (11.7 ppg, 7.8 rpg) and Galick (10.0 ppg, 4.8 rpg) have been steady contributors.

Later in Wednesday night's first-round action, the sixth-seeded Cal Poly Mustangs (11-18, 7-9) will tangle with No. 7 seed UC Irvine (14-17, 6-10). These teams closed out the regular season against one another this past weekend, with Irvine claiming a 91-84 overtime victory at Cal Poly. Earlier this season, the Mustangs notched a 95-81 win over the Anteaters.

The Mustangs are led by First-Team All-Big West guard Lorenzo Keeler, an 85.8 percent foul shooter who averages 16.0 ppg. Shawn Lewis is next in line with 12.0 ppg, followed by David Hanson with 10.4 ppg. The team lost leading rebounder and starting center Will Donahue (11.8 ppg, 8.8 rpg) in late- December due to eligibility issues. As for the Anteaters, they boast three double-digit scorers who have started every game this year, led by Eric Wise with 16.4 points and 6.4 rebounds per tilt. Rounding out that trio are Michael Hunter (14.0 ppg) and Darren Moore (10.9 ppg).

The Anteaters put together an improbable comeback to beat Cal Poly on Saturday, as they overcame an eight-point deficit in the final minute of regulation. Had the Anteaters lost that game, they would not have made the field for this tournament. With 0.9 seconds remaining in regulation, Darren Moore hit a fadeaway three-pointer from the corner to send the game into overtime, his second trey of the final nine seconds. UCI took control in the extra session, and Moore went on to score a career-high 24 points. The Anteaters got off to an ugly start, making only one of their first 18 field- goal attempts. Still, UCI trailed by only five at halftime. Both teams shot just 36 percent from the floor for the game.

Joining Moore in double figures for UCI was Patrick Rembert with 20 points. Michael Hunter scored 19 for the Anteaters, while Eric Wise finished with 17. For Cal Poly, Shawn Lewis led the way with 26 points and 10 rebounds. Keeler scored 21, Kyle Odister added 16 points, and David Hanson recorded a double- double with 11 points and 10 boards.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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